Chair: Christopher Vandeviver

WG-PLACE: Offender residences and offender target selection

Building: A
Room: 01

Author: Langton Samuel, Manchester Metropolitan University Crime and Well-being Big Data Centre

Title: Offender Residential Concentrations: a Longitudinal Study in the United Kingdom
Studies examining the spatial distribution of crime are increasingly favouring longitudinal research designs and fine-grained units of analysis. Findings indicate that stability in the overall concentration of crime can mask underlying local volatility, with micro and meso-units of analysis ‘bucking the trend’ of the citywide trajectory. This has been demonstrated across a number of different cities and at numerous spatial scales, and in doing so, has gathered a robust evidence-base. Despite having common academic roots, comparable research into offender residential concentrations remains limited. The field has not thoroughly examined the geographic scale which is most suitable to examine this phenomenon. Moreover, little is known about how stable offender residential concentrations are over time, or how sensitive this stability is to the choice of spatial scale. Given that many offenders commit crime close to where they reside, an important piece of the puzzle may be missing in our efforts to understand the longitudinal concentration of crime. This paper addresses these shortcomings using 10 years of geocoded offender residence data from a large urban area in the UK. Descriptive and multilevel analyses are used to establish the most appropriate unit of analysis. Non-parametric longitudinal methods are then deployed to disentangle the citywide trend in the number of known offenders. Potential explanations for these trends are then explored using census and housing data.
Keywords: longitudinal; offender; crime; housing; neighbourhood
Author: Neirynck Elias , Ghent University and The Institute of International Research on Criminal Policy (IRCP)

Christophe Vandeviver, Ghent University and The Institute of International Research on Criminal Policy (IRCP); Tom Vander Beken, Ghent University and The Institute of International Research on Criminal Policy (IRCP)
Title: Graffiti Writers’ Location Choices: a Study of Inner-City Graffiti at Micro Places
It is a well-documented observation that crime is not uniformly distributed in space. However, there is a large focus on instrumental crimes when examining criminal location choices, neglecting expressive crime types. For this study, we concentrate on graffiti writers’ spatial choices instead, and evaluate which environmental cues play a part in deciding where to offend. Literature suggests that graffiti writers are believed to prefer locations that are low in surveillance when applying their tags, yet yield significant exposure for their work afterwards. We collected data for a number of environmental variables at the street segment level (N= 2392) for the inner city of a medium-sized city in Belgium through a systematic social observation study. We use a spatial error Poisson regression analysis to model counts of graffiti removal incidences between 2012 and 2017. The goal of this study is to discern the environmental variables associated with graffiti occurrence. We hypothesize that street segments with low formal and informal control and high pedestrian and vehicular traffic will experience more graffiti incidents.
Keywords: urban crime; location choice; systematic social observation; environmental criminology
Author: Hunter James , Nottingham Trent University

Laura Garius, Nottingham Trent University; Ferhat Tura, Nottingham Trent University
Title: Do Different Types of Neighbourhood Generate Different Types of Offenders? an Analysis of Prolific Offenders by Offence Type Within an English Core City
Examining the ‘push’ and ‘pull’ neighbourhood factors that shape the spatial distribution of offenders and opportunity structures within cities has a strong tradition within environmental criminology.  Previous research has focused upon the spatial concentration of crime ‘generators’ and ‘attractors’, the location of certain types of facilities, offenders journey to crime, and the neighbourhood characteristics that shape patterns of victimisation.  Drawing upon police recorded crime data over a ten-year period, this paper presents an analysis of the over-representation of prolific offenders by offence type within an English Core City. It examines the extent to which different types of neighbourhood generate different types of prolific offenders.  Previous studies have characterised neighbourhood types in terms of their socio-demographic and/or deprivation profile.  The analysis presented here seeks to shift this focus by exploring the community engagement profile of different neighbourhoods. Utilising a bespoke community engagement classification that categorises localities in terms of neighbourhood identity, social diversity, satisfaction with policing, and community participation, the authors present empirical evidence on the disproportionate location of prolific offenders within dissatisfied, disconnected and marginalised communities.
Keywords: spatial concentration; offenders; neighbourhood characteristics; community engagement
Author: Barabás A. Tünde, National University of Public Service - Faculty of Law Enforcement

Ákos Szigeti, National Institute of Criminology
Title: Insecurity issues and their solutions in two Budapest neighbourhoods
The European Commission-funded MARGIN project’s aim was to create high quality tools to research and tackle insecurity issues at the local level. The project focused on the four dimensions of insecurity: the objective dimension (victimisation); the subjective dimension (fear of crime); the socio-economic dimension (social vulnerability); and the socio-geographic dimension (neighbourhood effect). In the selected two neighbourhoods of each city (Barcelona, London, Milan, Paris and Budapest) we implemented quantitative (data analysis and survey) and qualitative (in-depth interview, participant observation, focus group) research methods. In our lecture, we will present the theoretical background, our research methods and the main findings from the two Budapest neighbourhoods. According to our results, the socio-economic and socio-geographic factors have a significant impact on the perception of insecurity, as along with the phenomenon of social exclusion and social cohesion or the deprived, marginalised position of the neighbourhoods.
Keywords: insecurity, fear of crime, neigbourhood effects, victimisation, crime prevention
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