Chair: Graham Farrell

Understanding the Crime Drop

Building: G
Room: 21

Author: Weijters Gijs, Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), Ministry of Security and Justice

André van der Laan, Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), Ministry of Security and Justice, ; Josja Rokven, Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), Ministry of Security and Justice, The s; Marinus Beerthuizen, Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), Ministry of Security and Justice,
Title: The Juvenile Crime Drop: Less Risk, More Protection?
According to police statistics, juvenile crime in the Netherlands decreased annually since 2007. Explanations for the crime drop primarily focused on single macro explanations, such as increasing prosperity, focused policing or decreasing alcohol use. The prevalence of self-reported delinquency also dropped in the period 2005 till 2015. In three consecutive cohorts of the Youth Delinquency Survey (YDS; 2005, 2010, 2015) changes in exposure to risk and protective factors offered potential explanations for the drop in juvenile delinquency. Compared to previous cohorts, juveniles in the 2015-cohort were less exposed to risk factors like alcohol use and delinquent friends, and more exposed to protective factors like perceived emotional support, solicitation and monitoring by parents. Amongst serious delinquents, however, the exposure to individual risk behavior and delinquent friends was stable over time. Serious delinquents also showed stability over the cohorts in frequency and seriousness of offenses. The vulnerability for risk and protective factors was consistent amongst the three cohorts, regardless the seriousness of delinquency. Changing social cultural attitudes towards risk behavior, e.g. delinquency, could be an additional explanation for the juvenile crime drop. Implications for theory and policy are discussed.
Keywords: crime drop, juvenile delinquency, risk and protective factors, ecological model, self-reported delinquency
Author: Tilley Nick, Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London

Graham Farrell, School of Law, University of Leeds
Title: Potential Implications of the Security Hypothesis for Developmental and Life-Course Criminology
The role of security devices in the crime drop appears dramatic. However the effect upon adolescents is greater than other age groups. Here we tease out some of implications for the study of criminal careers, the age-crime curve, developmental criminology and life-course criminology.
Keywords: crime drop, security hypothesis, age-crime curve, developmental criminology, life-course criminology
Author: Matthews Ben, University of Edinburgh

Susan McVie, University of Edinburgh
Title: Criminal Careers and the Crime Drop in Scotland
To date, many analyses of the crime drop have focused on recorded crime or victimisation rates aggregated to the national level. This paper demonstrates the value of an complementary approach to macro-level studies of the crime drop by drawing on concepts from criminal careers research to understand the development of Scottish convictions trends over the course of the crime drop (1989-2011). This approach relies on the use of administrative data, which allows researchers to adopt research designs which would be too cumbersome or costly using survey methods, and we illustrate our claims with the results of an exploratory analysis of convictions patterns in the Scottish Offenders Index, a census (n = all) of convictions proceedings in Scotland. The results show a complex pattern of change across age, sex and time.
Keywords: criminal careers, crime drop, administrative data, exploratory data analysis
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